Olympic Drive Lines
Sydney Morning Herald
Thursday October 28, 1993
FORGET the image of Sydney in the year 2000 that you saw in your school textbooks. The city on the harbour won't be humming with electric cars; nor will it be overflown by personal helicopters. And as for those mile-long, finned, bubble-roofed dream cars predicted in the 1950s and 1960s ...
In reality, when Sydney celebrates the Olympic Games in the year of its postcode, the means of personal transport will be remarkably similar to today's.
There will be a few electrically-powered vehicles around; there might be some new variations on the conventional piston engine and even a limited number of cars using other power sources. But for most of us, the standard, four-stroke, liquid-fuelled reciprocating engine will be the motive force.
The car will remain, well, car-shaped. It will have a bonnet and boot, seats and a steering wheel and round, black, rubber things at each corner. But there will be plenty of changes under the skin. Some will be exciting, some restricting.
Many of the world's major car-makers are already demonstrating some of the gadgets, gizmos and systems they hope to put in production before the century is over. So here, with a bit of conjecture and a guess or two, are some things which are not yet commercially available but which you can genuinely expect to see on your new car in 2000.
BLACK BOX
It's only a matter of time. Already many affordable cars (such as the Holden Commodore) have a central computer to control many of the electronic functions. Such a unit can and will form the basis of an aircraft-style black box which not only records how far and by whom the car is driven (like a sort of electronic logbook), but will also be able to monitor steering angles, throttle position, gear selection, road speed, longitudinal and lateral acceleration, yaw rate, wheel speed differences and more.
In the event of an accident a black box may - in theory at least -apportion blame. Black boxes will also allow the location of the vehicle to be pinpointed at any moment. There are privacy concerns to be overcome, but the advantages when it comes to recovering stolen cars are obvious.
INTEGRATED SAFETY SYSTEMS
When the black box's impact sensor detects a crash, it will be able to automatically and simultaneously set other systems into action.
Naturally there are the airbags and seat-belt pretensioners, but the black box may automatically unlock the doors to facilitate rescue, activate an underbonnet fire extinguisher or turn on the hazard lights.
And, as Mercedes-Benz demonstrated on its Vision A93 concept car, a black box may also automatically send out a mayday to emergency services the instant the collision occurs. Such a mayday may detail the exact location and even the severity of the impact.
INTELLIGENT CRUISE CONTROL
Navigation systems will be commonplace by the turn of the century, but it is unlikely that a fully integrated "big brother" traffic system will be operational in Australia.
Nonetheless, intelligent cruise control systems are a high priority. They enable a driver to "lock" onto the car in front and maintain a constant distance from it, thereby improving safety and traffic flow.
They even allow you to have the car automatically inch forward in a traffic jam, reducing driver fatigue. Various systems are being tested, some using microwaves, others using cameras with imaging technology.
REGENERATIVE BRAKING
Ever considered how much energy you waste when, having got your 1,400kg of steel up to 60km/h, you then slam on the brakes?
New ways are being developed to harness the heat generated when braking. This can be used to power ancillaries (such as the airconditioning) and even to provide motive power for hybrid vehicles.
COLLISION AVOIDANCE SYSTEMS
Prometheus, the European "super traffic system" being developed by a collective of national governments and car-makers, calls for active collision avoidance systems to be introduced by the turn of the century.
In reality, they are unlikely to be ready by then, and even less likely to be seen in Australia by 2000. Passive systems will almost certainly be available, however. These give an audible warning if you are drifting out of your lane, if a pedestrian walks out in front of your car or if you venture too close to the car in front.
Because the latest experimental black boxes can measure virtually everything that is happening within the car and around it, clever software can- in theory at least - determine when you are in danger.
A Volvo safety engineer told me he believed "you must always give the driver the final decision", but active systems will actually take control of the steering and braking in some circumstances.
In Japan, the Ministry of Transportation's ASV (Advanced Safety Vehicle)program is trying to achieve similar objectives to the Prometheus program and I have driven in a Mazda which, using a camera and imaging technology, reads the road, steers to keep you within your lane, brakes if you are too close to the car in front and warns you if there's a car in your blind spot.
It even applies the brakes if it decides you are approaching a corner too quickly. It's remarkably effective - on a clear day, within the confines of a billiard-smooth proving ground.
SOLAR PANELS
According to Toyota, solar panels as we know them will never be able practically to power a road car but, as with regenerative braking systems, solar panels will soon power all manner of ancillaries.
Mazda already has a modest system turning over the interior fan on its 929 to cool the interior when the car is parked.
ACTIVE NOISE SUPPRESSION
This is not pie-in-sky stuff. A noise is merely a sound wave. An"anti-noise" system can use a microphone to "listen" to a sound, then generate an opposing sound wave to cancel it out. The result is silence, or near to it
Lotus pioneered the system and now virtually every car-maker is experimenting with something similar.
After all, such systems are cheaper and lighter than plastering layers of soundproofing material on the floor and actually redesigning components to make them quieter.
As cars become smaller and lighter, the need for noise suppression will become even greater. Mitsubishi has taken the anti-noise system one step further on its latest concept car. It uses noise cancellation technology to muffle the exhaust. This makes the engine more efficient than with conventional baffling because it reduces exhaust gas back-pressure.
Similar technology may also be used to control mechanical vibrations.
However, how you separate the noises you want to hear (such as the stereo, the horn or a worn bearing) from those you don't, I'm not sure.
NEW BODY MATERIALS
Anyone who has seen some of the accidents that Formula One drivers walked away from during 1993 will realise that modern body materials such as carbon fibre and Kevlar are incredibly strong and capable of absorbing immense energy.
Furthermore, they are exceptionally light. A variety of composite materials is being evaluated for use in road cars and it may be only a few years before we see a new breed of durable, recyclable and repairable plastic-based materials used for car bodies.
Even such things as driveshafts can be made from carbon fibre, reducing the weight without reducing the strength.
SUPER HEADLIGHTS
A new type of headlight is on the way, bringing Desert Storm technology to the family car.
Ultraviolet technology, for example, enables a headlight to see things in the dark, in the rain and in the mist without necessarily illuminating them. Even conventional lighting systems are set to be greatly improved, providing more light with less glare and lower energy consumption.
They are also much smaller, allowing body designers more freedom at the front end. An intelligent lighting system being tested by Toyota determines how much light is needed and where.
It dims in well-lit streets, dips automatically for oncoming traffic and increases its illumination as you increase your speed.
POLLUTION METER
Don't laugh. Several Sydney councils are investigating ways to bar-code your garbage bin so that you can be charged according to how much you throw away. A gadget at the end of your exhaust pipe may extend this user-pays concept to cars and provide a way for vehicles with dirty exhausts to be quickly (or even automatically) given a defect notice.
TELEVISION SCREEN
This is not to catch up on reruns of Happy Days but to control electronic systems (via a touch screen and a series of menus) and to display all information systems such as road maps and engine diagnostics.
An experimental Subaru even has an electronic owner's handbook similar to the help function on a computer. The same monitor can also give you the rear view when reversing (via a tiny camera in the rear number plate).
DO-IT-YOURSELF DASHBOARD
Just like the popular Windows personal-computer platform, the next generation of instrument panels will enable the owner to customise the display to their own tastes and requirements.
Prefer the speedo to be a little bigger, the tacho a little smaller (or perhaps non-existent)? Prefer analog to digital or a combination of the two?Want it to beep at you whenever the fuel gauge falls below quarter full or when a door is open?
The technology already exists and is not too far away from being inserted into your family car. It will be possible for a company to have a special dash which combines the regular info with an electronically generated corporate logo and a message screen in the left-hand corner relaying memos to the staff on the road.
ALERTNESS MONITOR
The idea has been around for a while, but the Japanese makers are now going hell for leather as part of the ASV program.
In Mitsubishi's system, a camera in the instrument panel analyses the driver's blinking and determines his or her level of alertness. If danger is detected, an audible alarm is activated.
Other systems monitor changes in driving patterns, such as an increase in the number of steering corrections. Toyota's system will apply the brakes if it decides the driver is too drowsy; Nissan's pumps out a fragrance which brightens you up.
VOICE-ACTIVATED CONTROLS
Kenwood's new navigation system responds to such commands as "Zoom In", "Next Map" or "Find George Street, City".
The latest Lexus phone also responds to voice controls. It's not just a gimmick; it means you don't have to take your eyes off the road.
And because voice controls can recognise "voice prints", they have wonderful possibilities for security systems. You will, for example, be able to program a car to start only at the sound of your or your spouse's voice.
FLY-BY-WIRE CONTROLS
Already used in Formula One cars, these are electronically operated controls devoid of any physical connections.
By not running cables, wires and hydraulic tubing from, say, the accelerator, clutch and brake pedals, car-makers can achieve a weight saving and greater precision.
There's another advantage: the pedals can have shorter strokes, therefore they can be set closer to the firewall, giving more leg room.
We live in an age where almost anything is possible, but virtually every new gadget has a cost associated with it, and it's the consumer who ultimately will pay.
© 1993 Sydney Morning Herald